TrendForce predicts that global notebook shipments could decline by a high single-digit percentage in 2027, depending on how manufacturers respond to rising component costs. Here are the details.
«Brands [to] face difficult compromises”
In a report released this week, TrendForce forecasts that global notebook shipments will decline in 2027, with declines ranging from single digits to low or high single digits, depending on how manufacturers respond to rising costs.
TrendForce says the impact will depend on how much of the rising component costs manufacturers pass on to consumers through higher retail prices, rather than absorbing them at the expense of their profit margins.
From the report:
TrendForce’s latest research on the notebook industry reveals that the main risk facing the market in 2027 is expected to shift from supply constraints to the impact of rising costs on demand. Global notebook shipments are currently expected to decline by a single-digit percentage in 2027.
However, if DRAM and CPU prices remain high, brands may be forced to pass on more of these costs to consumers. These higher retail prices could further extend replacement cycles, potentially pushing full-year shipment declines into the single-digit range.
TrendForce says notebook shipments in 2026 were supported by factors such as improved CPU availability, earlier purchases by manufacturers, and anticipated replacement demand from later periods.
Since some purchases originally planned in the second half of 2026 and beyond have already been brought forward, the replacement momentum in subsequent periods is likely to weaken. Additionally, as low-cost supplies gradually run out, brands will face more direct pressure from rising CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices.
The report finds that 68% of the bill of materials for an “unnamed mainstream notebook with a manufacturer’s suggested retail price of $900” was made up of CPU, DRAM, and SSD costs in Q3 2026.
He adds that next year, if component costs continue to rise, brands will likely have to choose between raising retail prices and risk weakening demand, absorbing increases at the expense of gross margins, or reducing specifications, potentially making their products less competitive.
TrendForce says DRAM supply will “likely remain tight” next year thanks to AI-related demand, “while PC DRAM faces the risk of limited supply growth.” On the other hand, NAND Flash supply constraints are expected to “ease in the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online.”
In 2027, it is therefore unlikely that brands will be able to simultaneously maintain prices, specifications and profitability. The extent to which they pass on higher costs to consumers will be a key factor in shaping demand.
Finally, the report notes that if tariff pressures don’t increase further, manufacturers may move some notebook production to China to reduce costs. TrendForce estimates that China’s share of global notebook production will increase from 76% in 2025 to 79% in 2026, potentially surpassing 80% in 2027.
To read the full TrendForce report, follow this link.
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